My favorite meteorologist Rob (KATC-TV, Lafayette, LA) posted the following on his blog today about the feature his model forecast a few days ago (now known officially as TS Dean) when I started this “tropical gossip” thread:
The longer range models are now pushing Dean closer to the Yucatan and eventually Mexico and/or south Texas by Wednesday/Thursday of next week. But as we say…a lot can happen between now and then. The upper low will be the wildcard over the next few days and we’ll watch its path closely. This upper low is expected to drift westward from the Bahamas through the Gulf over the weekend perhaps allowing for better rain chances here early next week. The upper low itself may not have much of a direct steering influence on Dean but could pave the way for the eventual path of least resistance for the storm to follow. Hopefully the sub-tropical ridge will be strong enough to keep the upper low and Dean south of the region. But when we are talking about any system skirting around the periphery of a ridge there is always a strong possibility for the system to curve more northward. Current intensity forecasts bring Dean to Category 4 status with 135mph winds in the NW Caribbean by Monday, and if the storm stays over open water there is no reason to believe that Dean storm can’t be a little stronger 5 days down the road. This weekend would be a very good time to get your hurricane plan and supplies in place, just in case…if we don’t need them next week, there’s at least eight more weeks of peak hurricane season to follow.
I’ll let Rob’s words speak for themselves. For the time being, enough said! We’ll check up on the status from day to day now.