I like KATC-TV meteorologist Rob Perillo above all others.   Here’s an excerpt from his weather blog for today:

It appears that a significant change may be underway in the tropics as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Pattern is showing signs of reversing. This is a global circulation that while not fully understood is an important player in tropical and monsoonal activity worldwide. In the last week it appears that this change in pattern will lessen the westerly shear factor in the tropical Atlantic which in turn will likely make it more favorable for tropical development. I received a number of emails about the long-range 12z GFS model which puts a significant tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico in the last week of August. The model is apparently acknowledging the lower shear environment that we are talking about, but the  potential system has yet to fully emerge off of the African Coast…and it’s just one computer model run. Inspecting the 18z model yields a different solution, but still indicates a tropical system running through the Caribbean roughly the same time, about 8-11 days down the road. At this point, I wouldn’t get too concerned about what is possible over the next week or two, but rather be ready for a busy tropical period from late August through the first week of October. There will likely be some major storms Atlantic over the next 6-8 weeks with the Caribbean particularly vulnerable per Drs. Klotzbach and Gray.

I saw the model run Rob referred to on the 5:00 weather today.  It showed a major tropical system roaring right up the gut of the mid-Louisiana coast in a little less than two weeks.

Fortunately, the margin of error two weeks out is plus or minus 1500 miles!

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